Peak Oil - What's in store for NZ?

Peak oil in New Zealand 

Hey Ecobob members, as requested, here's a page to post your comments on Peak Oil...

My recommended viewing is:
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

It is a hard going 3 hour watch but well worth it as it has some great information.

Re: Peak oil in New Zealand 

Hi All,
Just a very quick contribution to this subject.

My thoughts are that the PeakOil Crisis which is guaranteed to happen at some point in the future..
With some believing that we are at that starting point now(Crude Oil price today being $80.00 up 8% this week).
Will affect most of us drastically !!!
And will affect people to differing degrees in different countries..
My belief is the UK and USA being 2 of the countries that will find it so very hard to adapt to the kind of lifestyle changes required.!!
Those societies that live in a huge consumeristic manner, really wont know what will hit them !!!
I believe NZ is a in a great position in the World to adapt well to the Coming shortage and indeed huge price increase of Oil....

I make the following comparison

If its a little chilly at home in NZ we wear another layer !

If its a little chilly at home in the UK they just turn up the central heating an few degrees!!! and if that makes it a little to warm, they just open a window !!!!

This is a luxury that the UK has had since the discovery of Oil and Natural gas some 40yrs ago in the North Sea... Which is fast running out !

This "luxury" which is classed generally in the UK as essential, is just one of the ways that will make countries such as the UK feel the affect of the coming crisis worse than other others as the price for heating Oil and Gas rockets to a point where they dare not turn on central heating systems!! to keep them at a constant 24C !!!!

Perhaps the wool industry will once again thrieve with orders of 50 million Woolie Pullies for the UK !!!
Get your Grannies knitting again aye !!!!

I download lots of excellent documentaries from a site called minivova, whitch i have always found safe to use.
http://www.mininova.org/

I mainly Stick to the BBC docs though there are a few excellent others

I will list just one of relevence to this topic.

A Farm for the future

http://www.mininova.org/tor/2565172

Wildlife film maker Rebecca Hosking investigates how to transform her family's farm in Devon into a low energy farm for the future, and discovers that nature holds the key.

With her father close to retirement, Rebecca returns to her family's wildlife-friendly farm in Devon, to become the next generation to farm the land. But last year's high fuel prices were a wake-up call for Rebecca. Realising that all food production in the UK is completely dependent on abundant cheap fossil fuel, particularly oil, she sets out to discover just how secure this oil supply is.

Alarmed by the answers, she explores ways of farming without using fossil fuel. With the help of pioneering farmers and growers, Rebecca learns that it is actually nature that holds the key to farming in a low-energy future.

Broadcast on: BBC Two, 5:20pm Saturday 4th April 2009
Duration: 50 minutes
Credits: Rebecca Hosking

Re: Peak oil in New Zealand 

I've just embedded the first two parts of the series on farming in relation to peak oil here:

http://www.ecobob.co.nz/EcoArticle/2098/0/Farming-For-The-Future.aspx

Re: Peak oil in New Zealand 

No global exporting, importing of food, too expensive.
No NZ dairy industry except for local supply.
Horses rather than quad bikes.
Lots of little farmlets as the big farms cannot run efficiently without machinery and sub divide as communities move away from the cities.

Hey we all go back to a more rural lifestyle and become more self sufficient. OK for lucky NZ, big trouble for the rest of the world.

Super city Auckland will become a super white elephant, all that money wasted on building roading systems.

Re: Peak oil in New Zealand 

What is the energy requirement to produce oil?
In 1930 it was 1 barrel of oil = 100 barrels of output
In 1990 it was 1 barrel of oil = 18 barrels of output
In 2009 it is 1 barrel of oil = 3 barrels of output and fast dropping as 'peak oil' is reached.

What other sources of direct substitute energy are available to us?

Methanol at 1 barrel of oil = 3 barrels of output – barely economical
Biodiesel at 1 barrel of oil = 2 barrels of output – even less economical
Tar sands at 1 barrel of oil = 2 barrels of output - all natural gas world stock needed to liberate this type of oil or major nuclear power as a heat source.
Corn Ethanol at 1 barrel of oil = 1 barrel of output – equal energy in to energy out – why use a critically depleting food source in this stupidly wasteful manner?

Oil used for Transport = 70%
Oil used in Industry processes = 20%
Oil used in home heating = 9%
Oil used to produce electricity = 1%

Only the last two, home heating and electricity at 10%, can use a substitute such as the following:

Nuclear, Wind, Solar, Hydro, Biomass and conservation.

Renewable energy sources CANNOT substitute for any of the following processes:

Fertilizer, Plastics, Paint, Fibres, Chemical processes, Air transport –

The only energy options left to produce these are coal and Biofuels and any transition from oil, will be a horrendously expensive conversion over a long time period and the scale of substitute production will not balance.

Suggestion:
The greatest result will be to change the highest use category first – transport at 70% usage.

Electric cars can be powered by universally common bulk storage batteries.
You do not retain ownership of a particular universally common battery.
There are hundreds of them located at service centres and after you travel say 100 klms and are about to run out of power, you call into the next service centre, where you swap the drained battery for another charged battery.
The service centres are solar powered charging units topping up and selling only the power, not the batteries which are initially purchased with the transport.

Oil may now be diverted away from transport needs to industrial needs where there is no alternative substitute energy type.
We can now use oil as a precious commodity for specialist purposes rather than general purposes and so ‘stretch’ the peak oil point.

Rex

Re: Peak oil in New Zealand 

Hi,

This thread should go on forever,
there really are so mant ifs and buts to explore !!

But this is one of the most important topics in the world

I agree lucky NZ, it could flourish in such hard times ahead, as they surely will be...
But Do we really think that countries will leave good old little NZ alone to happily go about its business!!!!
I really dont think so...
I believe the only question unanswered is
Which will be the first Country to Invade NZ ????

As for Sceptics stretching the peak !!
Well i am affraid there is so stretching possible I believe.
Once Peak is reached then thats it !!
It really is all down hill from there...
Its just how fast we fall !!!

Good luck on your journey Rex
Anon .........

Re: Peak oil in New Zealand 

I'm not so sure anon, the last lot to attempt pacific domination (aka Japan) did so in a resources grab, e.g. minerals and rubber from Malay and oil from Dutch East Indies (as they were). I imagine the next lot to try (possibly the indonesians) will do the same. However, its a long way to come just to steal some milk and rustle some sheep. I don't think we need to worry about China, much easier for them to march across the border to the vast Siberian reserves.
I think it more likely (but still not very likely) that NZ would become the 7th Australian state.

Re: Peak oil in New Zealand 

Heard an interview late one night last week on Aussie/Kiwi relationships (National Programme): apparently when the COAG meets (coalition of Aussie govts - basically the 9 state and territory govts - Federal, QLD, NSW, WA, SA, VIC, TAS, ACT and NT ) - NZ is able to participate so that laws may be better harmonised. Perhaps we already are the 7th state (and 10th govt)...

Re: Peak oil in New Zealand 

In the back of my mind I had been wondering whether all of the recent free trade agreements with NZ has anything to do with peak oil, and securing food sources from NZ.

Seeker

Re: Peak oil in New Zealand 

I worried myself s**tless in 2006/06 when I was first reading all about Peak Oil on the NZ site oilcrash.com, also lifeaftertheoilcrash.net and others.

However I have come to understand that desperation and negativity will not help myself and my family through the inevitably hard times to come.

The best we can do is to insulate ourselves and to plan to mitigate these effects as much as we can.

The design of our house and our lifestyle changes that go with it (See kapiti off grid) I believe will help us a long way.

What I am less sure about is the psychological adaptation that will be needed.

If you're fairly new to the subject - be aware, for sure it is a very serious issue but doom and gloom is not healthy, is not condusive to practical solutions (No.8 wire or otherwise) and leads to depression. But know that NZ *will not* be let off lightly. We import 2/3rds of our transport fuel. The fuel required to transport our food and materials around. The Taranaki field(s) will not last long, they are tiny compared to the Ghawar and other Saudi/Iraqi fields which went into decline in the 80s.

There continues to be investment in roading when the fuel to run our vehicles continues to dissolve into thin air. Electric vehicles and electric manufacturing are all *possible* but just imagine the investment in time and technology required to convert our industry to run on these new systems.

What's worse is that we haven't even started yet, as documents such as the Hirsch Report in '05 and others suggest: That economies require 20 years of investment and preparation to ensure a smooth run into a post-peak world.

This isn't happening and Peak Oil has arguably already occurred.

It's going to be a rocky ride as far as I'm concerned.

But let's keep communicating and keep our chins up!

Cheers,
Russ

Re: Peak oil in New Zealand 

What I cant understand is that most now know that peak Oil is a reality coming soon with major impacts on our lives, yet governments around the world continue to do business as usual, which, ok i understand to a degree, but why keep building more and more roads and runways ??
They are still preparing for a future of growth in traffic.
Surely they should at least now be planning to get cars off the roads and planes from the skies.
I honestly believe that we make far too many journeys by car and planes.
And bet we could vastly improve our emmisions just by using cars far less.

Re: Peak oil in New Zealand 

Unfortunately the measurements of economic growth are bound too closely to consumption to be easily changed. Without all this consumption, growth stalls and we fall into recession, job losses etc. Governments have their hands tied by us the general public. Anything they do to curb growth would be unpopular and they would last a single term - so they carry on regardless with as you say building roads etc.

The train is too big to stop and there'll be a mighty bang when it hits the buffers.

Re: Peak oil in New Zealand 

An interesting email I got from a contact in ECan relating to peak oil:

I’m bringing your attention to the report - Vulnerability assessment of the impacts of peak oil on the Canterbury Region – prepared for Environment Canterbury by Ian McChesney (Christchurch-based energy/transportation/strategy consultant) which is now available at this link (top of page) http://www.ecan.govt.nz/publications/Pages/energy-reports.aspx.

This work, commissioned by Environment Canterbury’s Energy and Transport portfolios, seeks to explore particular vulnerabilities that an uncertain future for oil supply and price might have on communities and businesses in the region; and has focused on developing an understanding of the current dynamics of the international oil market as well as a dialogue with regional and national stakeholders to gauge their views on future oil vulnerability.
Interviewees in this study, by and large, accepted that the era of cheap oil is over and that oil supply in the future will be characterised by underlying higher prices with significant price volatility. However, there was not a sense of ‘crisis’, or indeed a sense that the world was ‘running out of oil’. Rather, the general view coming through was that this was an ongoing challenge to address through combinations of new forms of supply, alternatives to oil, efficiency improvements, fuel conservation, new technology, etc.
The interviewees were identified from a combination of having had previous contact with ECan on energy issues, and being recommended by others as being knowledgeable on the subject. There was no prior expectation about the views interviewees would have on the issue. Interviewees were drawn from a range of sectors – government, tourism, manufacturing and exporting, dairying/agriculture and horticulture, transport, infrastructure – but they were not necessarily interviewed as ‘representatives’ of either their sector or organisation they worked for. Sometimes the interviewees gave personal views on the issue.
Interviewees in general did not identify a particular role for Environment Canterbury (ECan) on this issue going forward. However, there are three recommendations for follow-up based on ECan utilising its facilitator capacity and practical experience to help players in the region better plan for the future:
• Preparedness for a short term fuel emergency – A majority of interviewees considered there was a reasonable likelihood of some kind of fuel supply disruption in future years, but at present there seems little awareness of the current plans that are in place (or being developed). ECan could take the lead to facilitate a stakeholder briefing around oil security and oil emergency response procedures.
• Electricity supply and grid architecture – The issue of the quality and security of regional electricity supply has been previously addressed in the Canterbury Regional Energy Strategy Project (CRESP). The added dimension of oil supply vulnerability is the potential for electric vehicles (EV) to start substituting for light petrol/diesel cars and the effect this will have on electricity supplies and grid design. This reality is now with us, albeit in a very small way and at the very start of a long term market transformation. The CRESP project (in effect, the Canterbury Regional Energy Strategy, currently under development) should factor in aspects of electricity supply and local grid architecture that would be required to meet a growing market for EVs in the future
• Risk management – Based on mainstream views of the future oil price, organisations should be planning for higher oil prices. In addition there is the core uncertainty around the timing and trajectory of increases – price volatility is a characteristic of the short-term oil market, while longer term price scenarios are characterised by a wide range of price possibilities. ECan could highlight the need for regional organisations to adopt appropriate risk manag

Re: Peak oil in New Zealand 

NB, this work follows on from Peak Oil and Climate Change: Issues for Environment Canterbury - http://www.ecan.govt.nz/publications/Plans/peakOilU07_71complete.pdf - undertaken in 2007.

Re: Peak oil in New Zealand 

An interesting new video on peak oil:

http://www.ecobob.co.nz/EcoArticle/2119/0/Video-Peak-oil.aspx

Re: Peak oil in New Zealand 

Hi Ecobob

Can you please check the link for your 2 Dec 09 9:55am post? I can't find the doc.

Seeker